The big return of foreigners to Italy

Italian tourism accelerates for the holidays, thanks in part to the return of foreign travelers. A week before Christmas, accommodation businesses' forecasts of tourist flows are positive: between Christmas, New Year's Eve and Epiphany, 13.8 million presences in official facilities are expected, +8.1% compared to 2021.

This growth is driven by the increase in foreign presences (+19.5 percent), which in some art cities have returned to 2019 levels. This is good news for the sector, which, after a good summer, went through an autumn not without difficulties and affected by the high cost of energy: some businesses were forced to anticipate seasonal closures or suspend operations during low season periods due to rising operating costs.

In tourist markets, however, there is no shortage of desire to leave, and for the upcoming holidays businesses report an increase in bookings, especially of foreigners, although inflation and the uncertainties of the economic phase will affect the length of stays and the spending capacity of tourists.

Italian demand remains the majority: a total of 8.6 million presences of our fellow citizens are expected in facilities, 62.3 percent of the total, up +2.2 percent from last year. But the highest increase is marked by foreign visitors: Flows from abroad are estimated to grow by +19.5 percent for these holidays, totaling more than 5.2 million presences. Increasing especially are the German and French, but also the Swiss, British, Dutch and Belgians.

Among non-European markets, on the other hand, the most significant reports of increase are for the U.S. market, with a large return of U.S. tourists especially in art cities. Some first signs of recovery also for the markets of Canada, Brazil and China.

In particular, cities and art centers are expected to show an increase of +11 percent, while for mountain resorts the estimated increase is +8.4 percent. Good expectations are also expected for hill/country and lake resorts, with increases of +7.2 percent and +6.2 percent, respectively.

Smaller, but still significant increases are expected for spa resorts (+5.3%), marine (+5%) and Other Interest locations (+3.1%). Overall, the trend would be slightly better for non-hotel facilities (+9.1%) than for hotels (+7.7%).

A fairly uniform trend emerges from the survey among the different areas of the country: the best forecasts are from companies in the Center (+9.1%) and the Northwest (+8.2%), but a positive trend is also expected in the Northeast (+7.9%) and in the regions of the South and Islands (+6.7%). Some differentiation is noted, however, regarding the presence of foreigners: in the Northeast and Northwest areas, the share of foreign demand is reported at 42 percent and 40 percent, respectively.

In the Central regions it is expected to stand at 33 percent, while in the South and Islands it would drop to 19 percent.