The 25% tariffs on the automotive sector, announced by President Donald Trump for April 2, could significantly impact the revenue of Italian companies, with estimated losses between 1.4 and 3 billion euros. Subcontractors would be the most affected, with damages potentially reaching up to 2.5 billion euros due to their reliance on the European supply chain.

Employment could decrease by 9,700 to 15,500 jobs in small and medium-sized businesses and factories tied to the auto sector's exports. Subcontractors, being the backbone of the supply chain, would suffer the most, while finished vehicle producers could mitigate the impact with alternative production in North America.

For example, Stellantis, one of the major finished vehicle producers, would see a revenue drop between 61 and 200 million euros linked to exports to the U.S. (406 million annually), with reduced margins and a 15-20% drop in demand. System providers and module manufacturers (such as Marelli and Bosch Italy) would face losses between 100 and 225 million euros, while subcontractors, with 25 billion euros in turnover, would experience a contraction between 1.2 and 2.5 billion euros. Specialists (like Brembo) would see lesser impacts, with losses between 25 and 70 million euros.

In the sector, which employs about 270,000 people, Italy could lose up to 5.7% of its jobs. Subcontractors, employing about 130,000 people, are at risk of losing between 7,000 and 10,000 jobs, mostly in Piedmont and Lombardy. Stellantis could reduce 1,000 to 2,000 positions at its Melfi and Pomigliano plants, while system providers and module manufacturers could face 1,500 to 3,000 layoffs. Specialists would experience smaller reductions, with about 200-500 positions at risk.

Exports of Italian vehicles (like the Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500) to the U.S. amount to about 406 million euros annually. A 25% tariff would increase the cost of exported vehicles by about 101.5 million euros, potentially leading to a 15-20% drop in demand, reducing export revenue by 61-81 million euros.

The reduction of European vehicle production for the U.S., particularly German cars that use Italian components, could cut demand for Italian systems by 10-15%, resulting in a revenue loss between 100 and 225 million euros. Subcontractors, who represent 70% of the supply chain, generating 25 billion euros in 2023, could experience a 5-11% decline compared to the previous year.