Censis (Centro Studi Investimenti Sociali) has been producing for fiftysix years a constant and articulated research, advice and technical assistance in the socio-economic development.This business has developed over the years through the implementation of studies on the social, economic and territorial development, intervention programs and cultural initiatives in the vital areas of the Italian society: education, work and representation, welfare and health care, the territory and the nets, economic actors, media and communication, public governance, security and citizenship. The annual "Report on the social situation of the country", yearly prepared by Censis since 1967, is considered the most qualified and complete tool for the interpretation of the Italian society. This here below is the abstract of the 2022 report.
Post-populist Italy
Italian society is entering the cycle of post-populism. Structural, long-term economic and social vulnerabilities are now compounded by the deleterious effects of the four overlapping crises of the last three years: the lingering pandemic, the bloody war at Europe's doorstep, high inflation, the energy stranglehold.
And the alienating fear of being exposed to uncontrollable global risks. Out of this profoundly changed picture emerges a renewed demand for prospects of well-being and genuine demands for equity are rising that can no longer be simplistically dismissed as "populist," as if they were unrealistic expectations fomented by some demagogic political leader.
Almost all Italians (92.7 %) are convinced that the surge in inflation will last for a long time, 76.4 % believe that they will not be able to count on significant increases in family incomes, 69.3 % fear that their standard of living will fall (and the percentage rises to 79.3 % among people who already hold low incomes), and 64.4 % are dipping into their savings to cope with inflation. There is therefore growing revulsion at privileges now considered odious, with boundless divisive effects: for 87.8 %, excessive differences between employee and executive salaries are unbearable, for 86.6 % the millionaire severance pay of managers, for 84.1 % the too-low taxes paid by web giants, for 81.5 % the easy earnings of influencers, for 78.7 % the wastefulness of celebrity parties, for 73.5% the use of private jets.
But there are no conflict flare-ups, intense collective mobilizations through strikes, street demonstrations or marches. Instead, there is a silent retraction of the Republic's lost citizens. In the last elections, the leading party was the non-voters, composed of abstainers, blank and void ballots, which marked a record and a deep scar in republican history: nearly 18 million people, or 39 % of the eligible voters. In 12 provinces, nonvoters exceeded 50 %. Between the 2006 and 2022 policies, nonvoters doubled (+102.6 %); between 2018 and 2022, they increased by 31.2 % (nearly 4.3 million more). For growing portions of the working and middle classes, the traditional linear "labor-economic well-being-democracy" entanglement no longer works.
Entering a new age of risks
Deprived of the comfort of a reassuring teleology and no longer believing in the radiant promises of modernity, in the new age of risks most seek a precaution for immunization from current dangers. In the collective imagination has settled the belief that anything can happen, even the unspeakable: lockdown, cutting essential consumption (from energy to the food shopping cart), trench warfare or the use of the atomic bomb. 84.5 % of Italians are convinced that geographically distant events can suddenly and radically change their daily lives and turn their destinies upside down. 61.1 % fear that a world conflict may break out, 58.8 % that nuclear weapons will be used, and 57.7 % that Italy will go to war.
It is the thinning of the diaphragm between the great story and the micro-stories of individual lives that generates in our times the perception of risks that make one feel powerless, beyond any prevention initiative within one's reach, resorting for example to insurance coverage. Today 66.5 % of Italians (10 percentage points higher than pre-Covid 2019) feel insecure. The main perceived global risks are: for 46.2 % war, for 45.0 % economic crisis, for 37.7 % lethal viruses and new biological health threats, for 26.6 % instability in international markets (from scarcity of raw materials to booming energy prices), for 24.5 % catastrophic weather events (scorching temperatures and heavy rainfall), and for 9.4 % large-scale cyber attacks.
The cost of major events in history: the jamming of projective mechanisms and social melancholy
That of 2022, however, does not look like an Italy on the verge of a nervous breakdown, marked by widespread expressions of anger and serious social tensions. But the projective mechanisms typical of a rampant consumer society, which in the past drove people to make sacrifices to modernize, enrich and beautify themselves, have lost their grip and ability to guide collective behavior. Rather, the desire to be oneself, with one's limitations, prevails. Italians are no longer willing to make sacrifices: 83.2 % to put into practice the directions of some influencer, 81.5 % to dress according to fashion standards, 70.5 % to buy prestige products, 63.5 % to look younger, 58.7 % to feel more beautiful. And 36.4 % are unwilling to sacrifice themselves to get ahead in their work and earn more money. Overall, 8 out of 10 Italians say they are not willing to make sacrifices to change, to become other than themselves.
It is the operational cunning of subjectivity that, in the flow of unexpected events in recent years, now expresses an unprecedented imperviousness to projective myths, which can overflow into the explicit renunciation of individual self-promotion. The balance? 89.7 % of Italians say that, thinking about the sequence of pandemic, war and environmental crisis, they feel sadness, and 54.1 % have a strong temptation to remain passive. It is melancholy that defines the character of Italians today, the feeling proper to the nihilism of our times, corresponding to the consciousness of the end of the omnipotent dominance of the "I" over events and the world, an "I" that melancholically is forced to confront its own limitations when it comes to governing destiny.
Privatization of risks and sense of insecurity
At the top of Italians' personal insecurities, for 53.0 % is the risk of non-self-sufficiency and disability, 51.7 % fear being a victim of crime, 47.7 % are not sure they will have sufficient income in old age, 47.6 % are afraid of losing their jobs and thus facing economic hardship, 43.3 % fear incurring accidents or injuries at work, and 42.1 % fear having to pay out of their own pockets for unexpected health care services. Yet over the past decade, reported crimes in Italy have decreased by 25.4 % overall. Today we are the statistically safest country ever. The most heinous crimes, voluntary homicides, have decreased from 528 in 2012 to 304 in 2021 (-42.4 %). And major predatory crime phenomena are in sharp decline: in ten years, robberies have decreased from 42,631 to 22,093 (-48.2%), residential burglaries from 237,355 to 124,715 (-47.5%), and motor vehicle thefts from 195,353 to 109,907 (-43.7%). Only a few crimes have increased over the past decade: sexual assault (4,689 in 2012, 5,274 in 2021: +12.5%), extortion (+55.2%), and computer fraud (+152.3%).
A society "without": territories without social cohesion
The map of new social fragilities first contemplates households living in absolute poverty: there are more than 1.9 million (7.5 % of the total), or 5.6 million people (9.4 % of the population: 1 million more than in 2019). Of these, 44.1 % reside in the South. Young people aged 18-24 who have exited the education and training system early are 12.7 % nationally and 16.6 % in the southern regions, compared with a European average of early school leavers that stands at 9.7 %. On average in European Union countries, the share of 25-34 year olds with a diploma is 85.2 %, in Italy 76.8 % and falls to 71.2 % in the South. Also lower than the European average is the percentage of 30-34-year-olds with a college degree or tertiary education: 26.8 % in Italy and 20.7 % in the South, compared with an EU average of 41.6 %. Our country also holds the European record for the number of Neet, young people who are neither studying nor working: 23.1 % of 15-29 year olds compared to an EU average of 13.1 %. But in the southern regions, the incidence rises to 32.2 %.
Schools and universities without students
Over the past five years, schoolchildren have decreased from 8.6 million to 8.2 million: -4.7 % (403,356 fewer). The negative wave of demographic dynamics is particularly evident in preschool (-11.5 % over the five years) and elementary school (-8.3 %). In universities in the academic year 2021-22, there is also a sharp decline in the number of matriculations: -2.8 % from the previous year (9,400 fewer students). Based on demographic forecasts, they foreshadow desertified classrooms and a depleted university pool. As early as 10 years from now, the population from 3 to 18 year olds will drop from the current 8.5 million to 7.1 million, and by 2042 it could shrink to 6.8 million (1.7 million fewer than in 2022). The demographic tsunami will first hit primary and secondary school, with a decrease from today of nearly 900,000 6-13 year olds in 2032, and in the following decade it will hit secondary school hard: 726,000 fewer 14-18 year olds than in 2022. Twenty years from now, in 2042, the 19-24 year-old population will have declined by almost 760,000 compared to today: with the same propensity to study at university, there would be 390,000 fewer enrolled and 78,000 fewer matriculated than today (and currently foreign students are just 5.5 % of those enrolled in university).
Healthcare without doctors and nurses
While the National Health Fund increased by an average of 0.8 % annually from 105.6 billion to 113.8 billion in the 2010-2019 decade, it increased to 120.6 billion in 2020, with an average annual increase of 1.6 % in the 2020-2022 period due to measures to cope with the Covid emergency. But the incidence of National Health Fund funding will drop to 6.2 % of GDP in 2024 (it was 7.3 % in 2020). From 2008 to 2020, Italy's physician-to-inhabitant ratio decreased from 19.1 to 17.3 per 10,000 residents, and the ratio for nurses from 46.9 to 44.4 per 10,000 residents. The average age of the 103,092 national health service physicians is 51.3 years, 47.3 years that of nurses. 28.5 % of physicians are over 60 years old, and a substantial number are approaching retirement age. Over the five-year period 2022-2027, there will be an estimated 29,331 retirements among physicians employed by the SSN, 21,050 among nurses. Of the 41,707 family physicians, 11,865 will retire (2,373 per year).
Latent repositioning: who benefits from de-globalization? Italian-style friend-shoring
In 2021, the value of Italian exports exceeded 600 billion euros (516 billion goods, 87 billion services), corresponding to 33.8 % of GDP. For this year, exports are expected to increase by 70 billion euros (53 billion for the goods component alone). But now there is a deceleration in international trade due to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Italy seems to have already begun to pursue its own friend-shoring strategy by intensifying trade with European countries, the North American area and Mediterranean countries. Between January and July this year, goods exports to the EU and the UK increased by 22.9 % compared to the same period in 2021, and those to NAFTA countries (Canada, the United States and Mexico) by 31.0 %. Out of 364.4 billion euros of Italian exports in the world for the first seven months of this year, 78.8 % are friend-shoring. Considering the Mediterranean area, another 23 billion is added, an increase of 30.3% over the same period last year.
The restructuring of the business system accelerated by the energy crisis
Due to high utility bills, it is estimated that 355,000 companies (8.1 % of active businesses) could experience a serious imbalance between costs and revenues. The vast majority (86.6 %) are in the service sector, a smaller portion (13.6 %) in the industrial sector. Critical issues affect 3.3 million employees (19.2 % of the total), 74.5 % of whom are in the service sector (2.5 million employees) and 25.5 % in industry (850,000 employees). If the outcomes already observed in past waves of crisis were to occur, it would once again be microenterprises that would suffer the most. Between 2012 and 2020, active enterprises shrank by 15,000. The negative balance stems from the decline in the size class of up to 9 employees (-18,115), while the other size classes, on the contrary, show positive balances, especially in the size 50-249 employees (+2,225 firms).
The test case for public administration, between human resource injections and renewal drive
Employment in the public sector (3,249,000 employees) has shrunk by nearly 260,000 workers over the past two decades. We have gone from 61.7 public employees per 1,000 residents in 2002 to the lowest recorded in 2013 (53.6 per 1,000), to 55.1 per 1,000 residents in 2021. Public administration has thus had to meet the needs of citizens and businesses with fewer forces. In Italy, 13.7 % of employees are employed by public administrations, but in France 19.7 %, in Spain 16.9 % and in the United Kingdom 16.4 % (only in Germany is the ratio lower: 11.1 %). In the last year, the cost of public administration employees amounted to 166.8 billion euros, or 10 % of GDP. The average age of civil servants is close to 50: 6.5 years older than in 2001. Currently, staff aged 55 and older make up 36.7 % of the total, and-an even more worrying statistic-those under 35 are reduced to about 10 %, less than half of what they were in 2001. Average seniority has also increased over the past two decades: from 16.5 to 17.5 years. Thanks to recent stabilizations in the school sector, the share of staff with less than 5 years' seniority has increased (25.8 %), but these are mostly long-term precarious staff permanently embedded in a highly aged public machine.
A boost from the technocratic oligarchy
The number of managerial staff in the public administration, after a low in 2017, now stands at 193,000, 3.5 % more than in 2011 (while the rest of the public administration staff decreased by 1.5 % during the same period). There is one manager for every 16 public employees. A gradual aging is noticeable, however. There is an increase in both managers over 55 (from 41.0 % of the total in 2011 to 44.2 %) and in the intermediate age group of 35-44 (from 17.1 % to 21.7 %).
In recent years, however, there has been a slight increase in young executives under 35 years of age (from 2.5 % of the total in 2011 to 3.8 %), yet they remain white flies within the public administration. Executives with high skills, acquired through postgraduate specialization and PhDs, are increasing, weighing in at 46.7 %. Although the share of citizens who believe the public administration works very well is still residual (3.4 %), the share of those who say they are partially satisfied has increased (40.2 %). But more than half of Italians (51.5 %) still say they are dissatisfied.
The main reasons for the poor functioning of the public administration, according to dissatisfied citizens, are excessive bureaucracy (31.4 %), poor staff motivation (29.2 %), poor organization (17.5 %) and interference of politics in executive appointments (12.9 %). 6.3 % of the dissatisfied indicate the still limited use of digital technologies as the main reason for the poor functioning of public administration.